New tropical depression possible in PAR this week

MANILA — The low-pressure area (LPA) stateforecasters are monitoring may develop into a tropical depression (TD) this week and possibly intensify and affect northern Luzon.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) weather forecaster Jori Loiz raised such possibility, noting the LPA is still over water where it can draw energy needed to increase strength.

“If other conditions are favorable as well, the LPA can develop into a TD within 48 hours,” he said Tuesday.

Once it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility, the TD will assume the local name “Julian.”

Since the LPA hasn’t yet intensified, Loiz said generally good weather will continue prevailing in Northern Luzon for the meantime.

“There can be some cloudiness but not much rain,” he also said.

The outlook is a breather for Northern Luzon which reeled from several tropical cyclones last month.

According to Loiz, the LPA is already inside the PAR.

It was spotted 1,300 km east of Cagayan province’s capital Tuguegarao City as of 8 a.m. Tuesday.

Should the LPA intensify into a TD, Loiz said this weather system can enhance the rain-driving southwest monsoon or ‘habagat.’

The enhanced ‘habagat’ is already weakening but can still bring significant volume of rain so people must prepare accordingly, he noted.

PAGASA expects transition from the weakening ‘habagat’ to the northeast monsoon or ‘amihan’ this month.

One other possible scenario is for the TD to landfall in Northern Luzon, Loiz continued.

“The probability for such landfall is still remote at present, however,” he clarified.

Aside from the LPA, PAGASA said inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is another weather system currently inside PAR.

ITCZ is affecting Eastern Visayas and Mindanao, PAGASA said in its 24-hour forecast also released Tuesday.

“There’s no interaction between such ITCZ and the LPA offTuguegarao,” Loiz noted.

He said ITCZ will likely bring cloudy skies with light to moderate rains and thunderstorms over Bicol, Eastern Visayas, Caraga and Davao regions.

For Metro Manila and the rest of the country, however, PAGASA forecast until Wednesday morning partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers and thunderstorms. Catherine Teves/

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